Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Bad News from the Combine

There was some bad news over the weekend for the Browns. Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas, who seemed like a possible steal at the top of the 2nd round for the Browns absolutely dazzled at the Combine with his combination of strongest and fastest CB. This likely pushes him squarely into the middle of the 1st round. Joe Staley, LT, Central Michigan, though limited with a leg injury, might have played himself into the 1st round as well with an impressive showing, making him likely unavailable when the Browns pick.

One good note however was that Daymeion Hughes, CB, Cal, ran poor 40 times in the 4.7 range, likely meaning a drop into the middle of the 2nd round or even the 4th round. Hughes absolutely dominated every WR he was matched up with this season, regardless of how much faster they were than him. He has exceptional ball skills and QBs were very fearful of throwing his way. He seems to me to be a classic example of a guy slipping due to poor times and scouts forgetting what a dominating player he was in college. He would be the steal of the draft if he fell into the 4th round.

Saturday, February 24, 2007

Browns win coin toss for 3rd pick

The Browns officially have the 3rd pick in the draft which is not necessarily a good thing given our track record with our last few, Gerard "Big Money" Warren and Braylon "Big Ego" Edwards.
Candidates that the Browns are looking at with this pick include Jamarcus Russell, Joe Thomas, Brady Quinn, Calvin Johnson, and Alan Branch. The Browns could go for any of these guys as they all fill a serious deficiency on the team. I would still prefer a trade down, preferably to a team that has its eye on a WR like Calvin Johnson. Minnesota, San Fransisco, and Tennessee fit this bill.

Saturday, February 17, 2007

Possible UFAs

Some possible Undrafted Free Agents that the Browns should look at closely:

Roy Hall, WR/TE, Ohio State - Reminiscent of David Boston with his massive size (240) and speed (4.4) but was never able to consistently find playing time behind Santonio Holmes, Ted Ginn, and Anthony Gonzalez. Hands are biggest concern but would make a great mismatch as a WR or a TE.

Nate Ilaoa, RB, Hawaii - Former WR that really, really bulked up to his present 240+lbs. He still has his great feet and has powerful enough thighs to run through arm tackles. He also has maintained his WR's hands. His negative might be his 40 speed but that will be sorted out at the Combine. Additionally he does not always lower his shoulder into contact.

Early 7th


In the 7th round, the Browns need to take a hard look at John Bowie, CB, Cincinnati, who was a Big East track champion last year. Bowie has the speed and size (5'10", 190lbs) to be successful at the NFL level. He simply needs a year or two to refine his technique since he is very raw, alternately flashing brilliance with flubs, especially in zone coverage. Bowie is worth the risk at this point, possibly even in the 6th and then hoping that Harline drops to the 7th.

Early 6th round


In the 6th round the Browns should take a hard look at Jonny Harline, TE, BYU. Harline has the best hands of any TE in this draft, however he does not have the requisite size to be considered prototypical since he is only 6'4", 240lb, as well as having very marginal speed. What Harline does have is an awesome ability to get open by finding spots in zones and positioning his body. Harline would make an ideal 3rd down option for the Browns, with his great hands, when Kellen Winslow splits wide, or to give the illusion of a running play by lining up double TE on third and three or closer situations.

Early 5th round


With their first 5th rounder, the Browns should seriously consider taking John Beck, QB, BYU, who is very undervalued and has much better pro potential than some of the QBs ranked ahead of him (ie Kevin Kolb, Jordan Palmer, Jeff Rowe, etc.). Beck has a very strong arm and can make all of the throws, even with a heavy wind. He is very experienced, makes his checkdowns, and doesn't usually tip his passes with his eyes. What he lacks in general athleticism, he makes up for in clutch play and accuracy (69% completion percentage). Critics point out that he is simply a product of his offensive system like David Klingler or Ty Detmer. I strongly disagree. His accuracy is not a product of a dink-and-dunk offense. Originally I thought the same, but after watching five of his games this year, concluded that Beck was much better than perceived. Beck can be successful in most any offense as long as he is protected adequately.


With their second 5th rounder, the Browns should take a flyer on Danny Ware, RB, Georgia. Ware is an immense physical talent who never really got the chance to showcase himself fully at Georgia with the constant shuffling of RBs by the coaching staff. Ware has the size and speed to be an instant success in the NFL with the additional benefit of not having a lot of mileage on his tires due to the rotation in college.

Early 4th round


With the second 3rd rounder, the Browns should take Marcus Thomas, DT, Florida. Thomas played DT in a 4-3 scheme at Florida, but with his quickness off the ball and athleticism would make a great 3-4 DE and could probably take over later this year or next year for an aging Orpheus Roye or push Baraka Atkins for starting time. Thomas did have some discipline problems in college but that is the reason he has 1st round talent and is still available in the 3rd round. There is enough veteran leadership on the defense with McGinest, Washington, Roye, and Russell to keep him in line. He is more than worth the gamble at this point.

Early 3rd round


With their first pick in the 3rd round, the Browns should select DE Baraka Atkins, Miami, who has the physical skills to be a first rounder but was overshadowed by the poor play of Miami in general. He also was a victim of his own efforts as he sometimes played with less effort as the myriad of off-field problems surely played a role. He can step right in and start opposite Orpheus Roye.


With their second pick in the 3rd round, the Browns should select Tim Duckworth, OG, Auburn. Duckworth has great size and agility making him a powerful drive blocker and a force in the running game. He does have a tendency to get a little stiff once in a while, but that is why he's a third rounder. If Blalock was picked in the 1st round, I would still go with this pick because Duckworth is large enough to back up the tackles and the guards on the line. Injury depth on the Browns is a very important thing, especially on the O-line it seems.

Early 2nd round


With the Browns first 2nd rounder I would look at Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas. Though not highly regarded before the season, Houston shut down Dwayne Jarrett, Robert Meachem, Dwayne Bowe, and Earl Bennett when he matched up with them one-on-one. A truly impressive run if you ask me that indicates his ability to raise his level of play in the spotlight and with the . Additionally Houston is a great tackler when supporting the run. If Blalock were selected in the 1st round I would look at Joe Staley, LT, CMU, with this pick. Staley is a former TE with great footwork and quickness against the pass rush, but is lacking the strength to be a great drive blocker.


With the Browns second 2nd rounder I would trade down about ten spots and pick up a mid range 5th rounder in the process. With the newly acquired second rounder I would select Jonathan Harrell, DT, Tennessee. Harrell is a large and powerful force at the point of attack who will be a great replacement for Ted Washington next season and giving him breathers this season. He is even quick enough to play at one of the DE spots on running downs. Harrell is so tough and passionate that he played the entire Florida game with a torn biceps that he injured the week before, going so far as to even attempt arm tackles with his bad arm.


The net effect of the trade was an additional 5th rounder.

Pre-FA, Pre-combine. Round 1


With the 3rd pick (hoping the coin comes up the right way) I was quite enamored with Joe Thomas at the that spot. Until of course I found out that his arms are only 32 inches, which is quite short for a LT and would really hamper his ability to get his hands onto faster speed rushers or stronger bull rushers. With that said, I also do not want to spend this pick on a RB or a QB. Whats left then...trading down and acquiring more picks since the Browns have more holes than anyone else, it makes a lot of sense.
The first trade down would be to move from the 3rd pick to the Vikings 7th spot in exchange for their 2nd rounder. They will want to do this move to leapfrog Tampa Bay in order to select Calvin Johnson, a once in a decade WR, or even if they foolishly want Brady Quinn this high.
The second trade down would be to slide into the SF 11th spot in exchange for their 3rd rounder (which might be needed to acquire David Carr). They will do this move in order to move up and select Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson or Jamal Anderson, DE, Arkansas, whichever of the two has fallen to the 7th spot. This trade could also be made with Miami for their 9th pick so that they can move up and select Quinn or one of the talented defensive lineman.
With the 11th or 9th pick, depending on how it shakes out, the Browns should first look at Levi Brown, LT, Penn St. He is much more athletic than Joe Thomas and has the requisite arm length the be a great player. Right now his pass blocking technique is mediocre, but that can be fixed with simple footwork lessons as Brown is more than athletic to accomplish the feat. Brown is also a dominant run blocker that manhandles DEs.
If Brown is unavailable, the next option would be G/T Justin Blalock, Texas, who some see at different positions. I feel he would be a dominant guard with his quickness and athleticism. Adding him would be a valuable addition to the O-line.
The net effect of these trades would leave the Brown with two high 2nd rounders and two high 3rd rounders which will be very valuable in filling some of the many, many holes on the team.

Early Free Agent Targets


I would love to find a way to acquire Matt Schaub, QB, Atlanta, and Michael Turner, RB, San Diego however since both are RFAs that becomes difficult. It can be done with a poison pill contract (something like requiring that the player is the highest paid at his position on the team, which Atlanta wouldn't do with Vick or SD with Tomlinson). However since Shaub is likely to be tendered at the highest level, signing Shaub would require our 1st rounder and 3rd rounder, which he is definitely not worth the price at this point. Turner is likely to be tendered at the next level, requiring a 3rd rounder as compensation, which also is too much. These two appear to be out of the question at this point.

Additionally I have an aversion to using a day one pick on an RB in this class. I would have love Michael Bush, RB, Louisville, in the 2nd round but his broken leg situation is not completely clear at this point. That makes my top free agent priority to find a guy to platoon with Droughns for a year or two at most, until a deeper draft class comes along, that will not cost a lot and has a different style than Droughns. Green can probably be had for a 2yr $6M deal with a couple million up front which isn't a steep price for someone who still has a little in the tank. He can catch the ball out of the backfield and pick up blitzes.

If Green will not leave Green Bay, I would take a look at Dominic Rhodes, RB, Indianapolis, but only if he can be had for the same price as Green. Rhodes is not worth more than that and it is possible that some team would be foolish enough to pay him more.

Option three would be to look at Chris Brown, RB, Tennessee, who has battled injuries the past few years. He is a talented player and I would have him ranked higher than this except that he is too similar to Droughns. I would prefer a more contrasting style to give other teams more to prepare for, but Brown would be a great third option for a year or two.

The next step would be to address the offensive line at the G and T positions. The first player I would sign would be Eric Steinbach, G, Cincinnati, who is one of the better players at his position in the league. There will be a bidding war but Steinbach would be more than worth it and would be a major upgrade over the banged up duo of Joe Andruzzi and Cosey Coleman.

At OT I would target Leonard Davis, Arizona, but only as a RT. Davis may be looked at as a LT by some teams but that would be foolishness on their parts to pay him as a good LT. Davis would be a fine addition at RT as he is a great run blocker with his size and athleticism.

If the bidding for Davis goes too high, another option is Max Starks, RT, Pittsburgh, who would have the added benefit of weakening a division rival.

If David Carr cannot be acquired, I would take a look at bringing in a veteran QB to serve as a backup and mentor to Frye or Anderson, or a rookie to be drafted later. Right now there aren't any guys on the market that fit this bill, but a lot can still happen as guys like Brunell and McNair get released later in the offseason.

Early Trade Prospects


Judging by the picture I'm sure that you can figure out my main trade priority for the Browns would be to acquire David Carr from the Texans. Rumor has it that they are shopping him for a 4th round pick which I would delightfully pay to have him on the Browns. I would even be willing to do it for a later 3rd rounder assuming the Browns could trade down and acquire one. His arm is a cannon and he can make every throw, which is a far cry from the weak arm of Charlie Frye. Derek Anderson may have just as strong an arm, but Carr is much more accurate, consistently completing over 60% of his passes, including a 68% this past year, despite playing on an inferior offense. The knock on Carr was the sacks, but those were mostly due to very poor line play. I believe the Browns could significantly upgrade their line through free agency and the draft enough to protect his life and health in the pocket.


Another interesting trade target would be Jerry Porter, WR, Oakland, who is rumored to be had for as little as a 6th or 7th rounder. I realize he may have some personal baggage with his open feuds with Raiders management, but isn't everyone trying to get out of Oakland these days. When a 30-something assistant college coach with no head coaching experience turns down the head job at one's operation, said team is in serious trouble. Porter is a much better player that can likely be had in the 6th or 7th round and would give the Browns a guy to push Edwards and provide deep speed without having to use a first day pick on a WR. If he doesn't work out, cut him early and it will end up a wash.